Crypto news

18 October 2026

1. 1

   Stablecoin payment volume rises 45% to $482 billion as supply stalls and card networks link crypto to cash

   Stablecoin payments reached $482 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 45% from a year earlier, according to blockchain analytics firm Allium, even as total stablecoin circulation barely grew. Allium put end-September supply at about $305 billion, up 0.4% since January, while AMBCrypto reported about $304 billion. Allium said the gap suggests existing stablecoins are changing hands more often. Mastercard, Stripe and Visa each announced services linking stablecoins to conventional payment systems. Allium's headline figure covers only a filtered pool of end-user activity, which it says is a small share of raw stablecoin transfers.

   Key facts

   • Stablecoin payment transactions rose 71% to over 1 billion in January through September 2026.
   • Stablecoin-linked card spending reached $3.9 billion, roughly ten times the level a year earlier.
   • Purchases under $50 accounted for 84% of the increase in card transactions, according to Allium.
   • Allium classified $2.4 trillion of $97.9 trillion in raw stablecoin transfers as end-user activity.
   • Allium estimated second-quarter stablecoin card spending at 0.03% of Visa's roughly $4 trillion payment volume.

   Commentary

   What moved is not issuance but how often existing tokens change hands, and card networks are now the channel doing that. Stablecoins are being pulled into the payment rails businesses already use, so the open question is whether flat supply becomes a ceiling on growth. Readers should watch whether payment volume keeps rising without new issuance.

   Sources: CoinDesk, NewsCord, bloomingbit, BigGo Finance, OneSafe

2. 2

   Bitcoin rises near $82,500 as stocks gain on stronger China GDP

   Global markets rallied on Monday as stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data and lower oil prices revived appetite for risk after last week's technology-led losses, which were driven by doubts about the profitability of AI investments. Bitcoin climbed alongside stocks as Asian and US stock futures advanced. The outlook for the Federal Reserve is read differently: CoinDesk said the central bank is expected to hold rates steady this month, while BigGo flagged a possible hike later this month. Bitwise's head of research, Ryan Rasmussen, said Bitcoin could exceed $100,000 by year-end, citing institutional demand and regulatory clarity, while BigGo noted that short-term volatility is expected.

   Key facts

   • China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year on year, up from 4.3% in the second quarter.
   • Retail sales rose 1.1%, more than double the 0.5% increase expected.
   • Nasdaq futures gained more than 1% and Japan's Nikkei rose 1.8%.
   • Brent crude futures settled at $109.86 a barrel, up 3.72%, BigGo reported.
   • Markets priced an 89% probability of a December Fed rate hike, BigGo reported.

   Commentary

   The rally rests on Chinese demand data and cheaper oil rather than anything specific to crypto, so Bitcoin is trading as a risk asset. The real test is whether the Fed's rate path, now read in opposite ways, pulls oil and tech shares back down. Readers should watch that outcome more closely than the Bitcoin price itself.

   Sources: CoinDesk, KuCoin, BigGo Finance, Cryptonews.net

3. 3

   Bitcoin ETFs shed nearly $1 billion in two weeks; Ethereum and Solana funds also see outflows

   U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $228.6 million this week, according to SoSoValue, after losing $681.1 million the week before, so about $910 million has left the funds in two weeks. Outflows outweighed inflows on three of five trading days, with the heaviest selling on Wednesday, when September consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year against a 3.6% forecast. A hotter producer price reading on Thursday revived bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike. Bitcoin briefly slipped below $80,000 that day, and CoinGlass reported nearly $950 million in leveraged positions liquidated over 24 hours, about 90% of them bullish longs. Ethereum and Solana funds have also been in the red this month.

   Key facts

   • Spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn $57.3 billion in cumulative net inflows since launching in January 2024, per Decrypt's tracker.
   • Bitcoin ETFs are down about $615 million for October, per Decrypt's tracker, after opening the month with $293 million in inflows.
   • The October 7 exit of $484.9 million was the Bitcoin ETFs' worst day since June, according to Decrypt.
   • Total net assets are $104.29 billion according to SoSoValue, versus $100.2 billion on Decrypt's tracker.
   • Crypto News reported Ethereum ETFs lost about $320.1 million in the week ending October 16, more than Bitcoin ETFs.

   Commentary

   The sharper signal is that the selling tracked inflation and rate expectations rather than fund-specific news, since the heaviest day matched the CPI release and the producer price reading then revived hike bets. Leveraged longs absorbed most of the liquidation damage, so a recovery in fund demand likely depends on rate expectations easing first.

   Sources: Decrypt, Yahoo Finance, Crypto News

4. 4

   Higher bank deposit rates linked to slower stablecoin growth, BIS study finds

   Stablecoins and bank deposits partly compete for the same funds, according to a working paper from the Bank for International Settlements. Economists Iñaki Aldasoro and Rashad Ahmed found that stablecoin market growth slows when banks raise deposit rates, using weekly US data from January 2019 through June 2025. To separate cause from coincidence, they exploited the fact that banks barely raise savings rates until the federal funds rate passes about 3%. The link was stronger for Circle's USDC than for Tether's USDT. The authors said regulators should weigh whether stablecoin issuers can pay yield, a debate live in Washington as rules implement the GENIUS Act. The paper reflects the authors' views, not necessarily the BIS's.

   Key facts

   • Stablecoin market capitalisation grew about 15% over a typical 10-week span in the sample.
   • A 1-basis-point deposit rate rise cut 10-week growth to about 12% in the baseline estimate.
   • An instrumented estimate put 10-week stablecoin growth at about 6%, according to Decrypt.
   • At 10 weeks, the effect on USDC was about minus 5%, versus about minus 2% for USDT, per CoinMarketCap.
   • The first-stage F-statistic of 9.78 falls just short of the conventional threshold of 10, CoinMarketCap said.

   Commentary

   What moved is less the correlation than the attempt to prove causation, and that attempt rests on a pricing quirk the authors themselves flag as statistically soft. Banks, not stablecoin issuers, hold the lever here, which gives lenders a stronger hand in the yield fight in Washington than the stablecoin industry may want to admit.

   Sources: Decrypt, CoinMarketCap, Digital Watch Observatory

5. 5

   Analysts split on whether bitcoin can reach $100,000 this year amid Fed and rate risks

   Analysts are divided on whether bitcoin can climb back to $100,000 before year-end. Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen told CoinDesk that bitcoin ends the year higher, potentially above $100,000, citing institutional ETF and corporate buying, demand for hard assets, and clearer regulation. LO:TECH's Adam Morgan McCarthy expects an $85,000–$95,000 range, arguing that Fed tightening has weighed on bitcoin all year. CoinMarketCap's Alice Liu told South China Morning Post and IndexBox that bitcoin is unlikely to break above $100,000 this year, though the worst of the downturn has passed. Laser Digital's Luca Invernizzi sees a possible short squeeze if bitcoin breaks above $90,000, while CoinShares' James Butterfill says sustained gains require renewed buying. Bitcoin traded around $81,500 at publication.

   Key facts

   • Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen says bitcoin potentially ends the year above $100,000
   • LO:TECH's Adam Morgan McCarthy forecasts a $85,000–$95,000 trading range through year-end
   • Markets priced roughly a 75% chance of a December Fed rate hike, according to McCarthy
   • Bitcoin traded around $81,500 at publication time
   • CoinMarketCap's Alice Liu says bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $100,000 this year

   Commentary

   The forecast gap is less about fundamentals than about timing: every bullish case depends on a macro shift that none of the analysts can yet see. Bitwise and LO:TECH agree on the same inputs, including inflation and institutional flows, and differ only on whether the Fed path turns before the breakout window closes. Analysts are effectively betting on the December rate decision, which leaves the outcome dependent on inflation data rather than crypto-specific news.

   Sources: CoinDesk, South China Morning Post, bloomingbit, BigGo Finance, IndexBox