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Crypto news

  1. 1

    JPMorgan Asset Management forecasts 10% annual bitcoin returns over next decade, topping stocks, bonds and gold

    J.P. Morgan Asset Management has issued its first 10-year return forecast for bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published Tuesday. Its base case projects 10% compounded annual returns, which CoinDesk reported would outpace its forecasts for U.S. stocks, bonds and gold. It is also the first time the firm has put a range on bitcoin returns. The bank nonetheless remains cautious. Analysts Dr Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo said volatility and unstable correlations remain an obstacle to widespread inclusion in portfolios, and described bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast but argued the firm's volatility estimate was too high.

    Key facts

    • JPMorgan's bear case projects bitcoin losing 9.7% annually over the next decade.
    • JPMorgan's bull case projects bitcoin gaining 17% annually over the next decade.
    • JPMorgan estimates bitcoin's volatility at 55%.
    • JPMorgan projects 7.5% and 7.7% annual returns for U.S. large- and small-cap equities.
    • BlackRock's IBIT drew $665 million in inflows Monday, its largest single-day inflow since October 2025.

    Commentary

    The forecast is less a bullish call than a concession that the bank cannot yet model bitcoin the way it models other assets, since it sits outside its main correlation framework. The real test is whether volatility falls, as Bitwise's dispute over the estimate suggests it may, because that is what would let the bank's own caveats narrow.

    Sources: The Block, CoinDesk, Bloomberg.com, Bitcoin Magazine

  2. 2

    BlackRock files for bitcoin ETF offering capped upside and partial downside protection

    BlackRock has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a bitcoin fund designed to limit investors' losses while capping their gains. The iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF, ticker PBIT, would gain exposure mainly through options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust rather than by holding bitcoin directly. Each of three overlapping tranches would initially protect against losses beyond about 10%, while sold calls at higher strikes cap upside. BlackRock's filing leaves the level of protection and upside cap unspecified, and fee and listing details are blank. Calamos already offers similar funds; its protected bitcoin ETF fell just 1% since October 2025 while bitcoin dropped as much as 52% from its record high. The filing is preliminary, and no shares can be sold until it takes effect.

    Key facts

    • IBIT drew over $665 million in net inflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue data.
    • The PBIT filing becomes effective 75 days after submission, which could be as early as January 2027.
    • Bitcoin Magazine put IBIT's assets at $65.7 billion; Yahoo Finance reported $66.37 billion.
    • Calamos launched three protected bitcoin ETFs in early 2025, offering full protection or losses capped at 10% or 20%.
    • The filing names portfolio managers Erin Armstrong, Kyle McClements and Richard Mejzak.

    Commentary

    BlackRock's contribution is distribution, not design: options-built buffers already exist from Calamos, First Trust and Innovator. The test is whether a familiar name draws assets rivals did not. Until fee and cap levels are filled in, advisers cannot weigh protection against lost upside, so those blanks matter more than the buffer.

    Sources: CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine, Yahoo Finance, Crowdfund Insider, The Motley Fool

  3. 3

    Mastercard launches Stablecoin Security, a risk intelligence tool for stablecoin payments

    Mastercard has launched Stablecoin Security, a service that helps banks and other financial institutions assess risks in stablecoin payments. Crowdfund Insider dates the announcement to October 19, 2026, while FinTech Magazine gives October 20; both place it at the Money20/20 USA conference in Las Vegas. The tool combines payment data with blockchain analytics to flag fraud, scams, sanctions exposure and other financial crime, including before funds move on-chain. Mastercard says its platform-agnostic API plugs into banks' existing fraud and compliance systems. Borderless.xyz and Keyrails are initial partners, the service is rolling out first in North America, and Mastercard plans to broaden availability through BVNK, which it acquired in August 2026.

    Key facts

    • Risk score is generated before a payment is finalized, so reviewers can approve or scrutinize the transfer
    • A Bank for International Settlements analysis found nearly 60% of stablecoin transfers involved multiple steps
    • The BIS analysis covered 593 million stablecoin transfer events drawn from 141 million Ethereum transactions in 2025
    • Borderless.xyz connects institutions to licensed stablecoin providers in more than 113 countries and 72 currencies
    • Commercial availability is expected globally during 2027

    Commentary

    What moved is the timing: the check runs before funds leave, not after settlement, which shifts stablecoin risk screening upstream into the payment itself. Mastercard is selling banks a way to keep their existing fraud and compliance stack rather than build a stablecoin-specific one, so the company's network stays the control point as stablecoin flows grow.

    Sources: Yahoo Finance, Crowdfund Insider, FinTech Magazine

  4. 4

    Visa and Mesh to let stablecoin and crypto balances be spent at stores

    Visa is partnering with crypto payments platform Mesh so consumers can spend stablecoin and crypto balances as they would fiat currency, in-store and online wherever Visa is accepted. Mesh said the arrangement combines Visa's acceptance network with its orchestration infrastructure, so payments draw on balances held in users' wallet apps. Finovate reported that Crypto.com counts 774 million crypto owners, yet they spend little of their holdings because converting to fiat has traditionally meant cashing out to a bank or signing up for a single-platform card. Mesh CEO Bam Azizi said the partnership solves the final step of making crypto spendable. Availability, supported devices and participating platforms have yet to be announced.

    Key facts

    • Visa and Mesh will let stablecoin and crypto balances be spent at Visa-accepted merchants.
    • Visa's network spans more than 175 million merchant locations in over 200 countries and territories.
    • Visa processed $14.2 trillion in payments volume in 2025.
    • Visa provisions a credential so shoppers need not sell, transfer or preload funds.
    • Merchants receive payment in the standard way, without new hardware or checkout changes.

    Commentary

    What actually moved is who absorbs the friction: Mesh takes on funding and conversion, while the shopper and merchant change nothing. Whether that holds depends on platforms and devices not yet named, so the rollout, not the announcement, will show whether crypto balances become routine spending.

    Sources: Yahoo Finance, Finovate

  5. 5

    French lawmakers approve taxing crypto-to-stablecoin swaps in 2027 budget amendment

    French lawmakers narrowly approved a proposal to tax gains when investors swap cryptocurrency for stablecoins, moving the transactions closer to the country's capital gains levy. Under current rules, swaps between cryptocurrencies without a cash payment generally benefit from tax deferral. The amendment would end that deferral for stablecoins defined as e-money tokens under the European Union's MiCA framework, meaning investors could owe tax when moving into them without cashing out to a bank account. Chainalysis's regional sales director for France, Francois Volpoet, warned the measure could push traders toward decentralized finance, peer-to-peer deals and offshore exchanges outside international tax reporting. Public Accounts Minister David Amiel questioned how it would be implemented and asked for it to be withdrawn. Finance committee rapporteur general Philippe Juvin said he favored keeping the deferral given crypto's volatility.

    Key facts

    • The National Assembly adopted amendment I-3898 to the 2027 budget on Oct. 16.
    • The vote was 38 in favor, 37 against, with 25 abstentions.
    • The change would apply to transactions from January 1, 2027.
    • It would remove tax deferral when investors receive MiCA-defined e-money tokens as stablecoins.
    • The text must still pass the budget's remaining parliamentary stages and could be amended or removed.

    Commentary

    The real change is the trigger, not the rate: moving between tokens becomes taxable without any cash leaving the investor's hands, so the dispute turns on definitions. Amiel's demand to define stablecoins first suggests the measure could be rewritten before it takes effect, while Volpoet's warning implies the tax base could simply move offshore with the trades.

    Sources: CoinDesk