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  1. 1

    Oil rises to about $105 a barrel as renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia raise inflation fears

    Oil prices rose Monday as renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about energy supplies and a wider Middle East conflict, raising fears of greater U.S. involvement. Saudi Arabia is also backing a counteroffensive near Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic shipping waterway. Prolonged oil above $100 a barrel could raise transport and manufacturing costs, squeeze profit margins and make inflation harder for central banks to contain. Traders are assessing the likelihood of further interest-rate increases ahead of U.S. and European inflation reports and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Bison Interests CIO Josh Young said a U.S.-Russia diesel deal was timed to maximize the short-term negative effect on oil prices.

    Key facts

    • Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, gained 0.4% to about $105 a barrel.
    • Saudi Arabia's main airport faced another Houthi attack Sunday, after a Saturday strike killed 12 people.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield approached 5.4% last week, its highest level since 2002.
    • The dollar has risen for four consecutive weeks, its longest winning streak since early 2025.
    • Bloomberg Intelligence expects third-quarter earnings to rise about 25% from a year earlier.

    Commentary

    The oil move itself is modest; the real exposure is that the energy shock feeds into the inflation data traders are waiting on, turning a supply scare into a question about borrowing costs. Bondholders absorb that risk first, which makes fixed income, not crude, the market where this conflict is most likely to show up.

    Sources: TradingView, CNBC

  2. 2

    Oil prices fall after Trump announces Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and diesel deal with Putin

    CNBC reported oil prices fell Monday on optimism of improved supplies after President Donald Trump declared an 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine that he said took effect immediately. Zelenskyy said Kyiv supports it, but the news had only just reached him. Moomoo reported that former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic questioned the ceasefire's credibility, while Tom Lee said it would be positive if true. Moomoo, however, reported Brent rose in early Asian trading that Monday, suggesting the ceasefire had not eased supply worries. Trump said Russia would supply diesel under a deal struck with Vladimir Putin, which Fortune called a stunning reversal from years of US pressure on Moscow; experts doubt it will make much difference.

    Key facts

    • Brent crude for December delivery fell 1.65% to $102.99 a barrel, according to CNBC.
    • Russia struck Kharkiv's CHP-5 power plant after Trump's announcement, Ukraine's Presidential Office confirmed.
    • Trump said Russia will supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel now, then 500,000 tons in November.
    • US average diesel price was $6.277 a gallon, down from a $6.528 high, according to AAA.
    • Since May, 10-year Treasury yields have correlated more with diesel than crude, for the first time ever, Amrita Sen said.

    Commentary

    Oil's drop reflects a declaration rather than new supply, since the ceasefire has no stated duration or enforcement. Real supply relief may depend on a refinery-only scope that White House officials reportedly floated and Russia has yet to accept. Whether that scope is agreed decides how long fuel costs keep rate-hike expectations alive.

    Sources: CNBC, Fortune, Moomoo, The Kyiv Independent

  3. 3

    US Treasury yields climb above 5%, nearing highest levels in decades

    US Treasury yields have climbed above 5%, with the 10-year note near its highest level in decades. Bloomberg, cited by Startup Fortune, put the late-September peak at 5.34%, the highest since May 2002, while Leo Sun of The Motley Fool, writing on Yahoo Finance, said the 10-year hit 5.3%, the highest since 2007. Energy prices tied to the Middle East war have fed inflation expectations and bets that central banks will raise rates. Robert Kaplan of Goldman Sachs points to inflation, heavy capital demand from the AI boom and the lack of a fiscal plan to reduce debt. Pimco's Dan Ivascyn has warned the 10-year could hit 6% this year.

    Key facts

    • Benzinga reported the 10-year yield fell to 5.24% last week, down from a monthly high of 5.36%.
    • Brent crude was at roughly $97 a barrel, its highest in six weeks, Startup Fortune reported.
    • The Mortgage Bankers Association put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.3%, the highest since November 2023.
    • The Fed has raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% this cycle, Startup Fortune reported.
    • Benzinga reported US national debt reached $40.26 trillion, weeks after crossing $40 trillion.

    Commentary

    Yields are climbing less because growth is strong than because investors want more pay to hold government debt, which Kaplan says is expensive for a heavily leveraged government. That cost falls on Washington's borrowing bill, so a credible deficit plan may matter as much as the Fed's next move.

    Sources: Startup Fortune, Benzinga, Yahoo Finance, Kathleen Hays Presents: Central Bank Central

  4. 4

    US September consumer prices expected to rise on energy costs, with core inflation seen steady

    US consumer prices for September, due Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, are expected to rise, driven almost entirely by energy, with the Cleveland Fed's nowcast pointing the same way. Core inflation is expected to be calmer: August was lifted by a one-off telephone services jump tied to a methodology change, and analysts expect hotel prices and used cars to correct. Reported October hike odds differ: investingLive puts them at about one in four, while Dow Jones Newswires, citing LSEG data, puts them at 19%. Goldman Sachs had expected an October increase, though that assumed oil falling toward $85. Producer prices and retail sales follow on Thursday, before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks in Bangkok early Friday.

    Key facts

    • Market expects headline CPI to rise 0.6% in September, its sharpest monthly gain since April.
    • Annual headline inflation expected at about 3.7%, a four-month high, up from 3.4%.
    • Energy prices expected to rise around 5.5% in September, led by gasoline.
    • Core CPI forecast to rise about 0.2% on the month, keeping annual core inflation at 2.4%.
    • Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16.

    Commentary

    The headline is the predictable part; the decisive number is core inflation, since only a firm core would revive October hike bets that weak payrolls had pushed down. A soft core would confirm December as the Fed's next move while oil stays above $100, leaving the energy shock to drive the headline without changing the Fed's timetable.

    Sources: investingLive, marketscreener.com, CNBC

  5. 5

    Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike this year

    Most Federal Reserve officials expect another interest rate increase will likely be needed this year to fight inflation, according to minutes released Wednesday from the central bank's most recent meeting. The officials unanimously agreed that inflation remained elevated and had made little progress toward the Fed's 2% target in recent months. The Fed's last increase defied President Donald Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts, and he criticized the committee as "very political" while still backing Chairman Kevin Warsh. Higher rates are meant to slow borrowing and spending and bring inflation down, but policymakers have said the Fed can take time to monitor the economy before acting again.

    Key facts

    • Fed raised its key rate a quarter point to about 3.9% on Sept. 15-16, its first hike in three years.
    • Overall prices rose 3.4% in August from a year earlier; core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 3%.
    • Wall Street futures pricing shows the Fed holding rates at its Oct. 28-29 meeting, then raising them in December.
    • Many Fed officials believe inflation, even excluding oil, gas and tariff effects, is stuck between 2.5% and 3%.
    • Long-term mortgage and borrowing rates have jumped in recent months; the Fed's hike likely played only a limited role.

    Commentary

    The notable signal is not the expected hike but that officials read rising stock prices and financial conditions as supportive of growth, leaving little room for the rate cuts Trump wants. Households already squeezed by groceries, gas and housing are likely to bear the cost of that restraint before the midterms.

    Sources: ABC7 Chicago

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