NewsNews

Finance news

  1. 1

    US inflation expected to accelerate in September on energy costs

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect US consumer price inflation for September, due Wednesday, to accelerate on higher energy costs tied to the war with Iran. CNBC and Quartz put the expected annual rate at 3.6%, while NBC News put it at 3.7%, both above August's 3.4%. Energy has been among the biggest drivers of inflation since the war began. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September, its first increase in three years, and signaled another hike is likely. Robert Sockin of PGIM warned that persistently high oil prices could spread into other spending, making the Fed's job harder.

    Key facts

    • Headline CPI forecast to rise 0.6% from August to September, per Dow Jones survey.
    • Core CPI, excluding food and energy, forecast to rise 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually.
    • Brent crude rose more than 14% in September and traded near $105 a barrel on Tuesday.
    • Diesel prices are up more than 75% since the Iran war began, NBC News reported.
    • Fed funds futures traders see December as the Fed's next likely hike, CNBC reported.

    Commentary

    The real signal is not the expected headline acceleration but whether energy costs spread into core prices, such as airfares and cars, that the Fed watches more closely. If they do, a pre-midterm rate hike becomes harder to rule out, and consumers whose wages already trail inflation would bear the burden.

    Sources: CNBC, Quartz, Kiplinger, Yahoo Finance, NBC News

  2. 2

    Dow closes down more than 700 points as global oil prices top $100 a barrel

    U.S. stocks fell as traders feared economic fallout from a potentially prolonged bout of high oil prices amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with the S&P 500 down 1.5% and the Nasdaq 1.7%. An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of global oil supply, is causing a major shortage. Trump's messaging has been mixed: he has indicated the war may end soon but has threatened escalation if Iran keeps impeding tanker traffic, and he downplayed the rise, saying it would benefit the U.S. financially. Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a purported first message that the closure must be sustained as a 'tool to pressure the enemy,' according to CNBC.

    Key facts

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 730 points on Thursday.
    • Global crude oil prices hovered at about $101 a barrel, a 9% one-day jump.
    • Oil prices have soared 49% over the past month.
    • U.S. gasoline prices rose to $3.59 from $2.94 a month earlier, AAA data showed.
    • Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index dropped 1.2% as the oil jump rippled through global markets.

    Commentary

    The sharper signal is who absorbs the cost: a physical supply cut with no set end falls first on pump buyers. Washington appears willing to accept that burden while pursuing its Iran aims, so consumer pain alone is unlikely to end the disruption.

    Sources: ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos, Stocktwits, Kiplinger, CNBC

  3. 3

    China's producer prices rise 5% in September, fastest pace since mid-2022

    China's producer price index rose 5% year on year in September, its fastest pace since mid-2022 and up from 3.8% in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The rise beat economists' forecasts, with higher fuel and commodity prices lifting business costs and coal prices climbing on winter heating demand, tight supply in major producing areas and expectations of higher international prices. Consumer prices rose 0.9%, slightly below expectations. The data came as second-quarter growth of 4.3% missed forecasts and was the weakest in more than three years, and as a State Council readout on September 28 signaled that more policy support could be coming.

    Key facts

    • Factory-gate prices have risen since March, reversing a 41-month deflationary streak.
    • Gasoline prices rose 16.6% in September, adding about 0.47 percentage points to consumer inflation.
    • Food prices fell 1.7%, pulling consumer inflation down by 0.29 percentage points.
    • Economists polled by Reuters expected 4.5% producer price growth, while Wind's poll projected 4.3%.
    • Retail sales grew more slowly than expected in August, while industrial output beat forecasts.

    Commentary

    The factory-price jump is largely cost-push rather than a sign that domestic demand is broadly recovering. That leaves Beijing facing a gap between upstream costs and household spending, and any policy response will matter most if firms cannot pass higher input costs on to buyers.

    Sources: CNBC, South China Morning Post

  4. 4

    Oil prices rise as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Strait of Hormuz ship strikes raise supply fears

    Oil prices rose on Wednesday as renewed Saudi-Houthi fighting, Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks and reports Iran was preparing for US military action after the November midterms stoked supply fears. The Houthis launched missiles at Saudi cities and Saudi Aramco facilities on Tuesday, hitting Aramco's Dhahran headquarters. Investing.com said the Houthis escalated in early October over Saudi backing of Yemen's government forces. Trump, in a Truth Social post, said the Houthis were probably acting at Iran's behest and trying to drive up oil prices before the US elections. Trump also said Washington may join Saudi attacks on the Houthis. Crude rose past bets on better supply from a recent US-Russia diesel deal, while Russia-Ukraine fighting continued.

    Key facts

    • Brent crude for December delivery rose 0.8% to $106.51 a barrel.
    • West Texas Intermediate for November rose 0.8% to $94.87 a barrel.
    • Saudi authorities shut Riyadh's international airport for at least a week.
    • A hurricane battering the US Gulf coast has taken over 60% of regional oil production offline.

    Commentary

    The rise rests on expected escalation, not barrels lost to the Houthi strikes, so markets are pricing how far the conflict could widen. Oil is also a midterm issue: energy costs from the Iran war already fuel cost-of-living concerns that Democrats hope to exploit at the ballot box, which raises the political stakes of any Gulf escalation.

    Sources: Yahoo Finance, Al Jazeera, Middle East Eye

  5. 5

    IMF warns global economy could soon test the limits of its resilience

    The IMF has warned that the global economy could soon test the limits of its resilience as emergency oil stocks run low. Rerouting oil away from the Strait of Hormuz and releasing strategic stocks helped contain the impact of the US-Iran war on prices, the IMF said, but high debt and deficits could leave many governments little room to protect consumers. The Fund said risks are skewed to the downside, notably a prolonged Middle East stalemate or escalation. Donald Trump has insisted he could launch further attacks on Iran in coming weeks, and analysts said his recent deal with Vladimir Putin to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel would have little meaningful effect on prices.

    Key facts

    • IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, from 3% in July; 2027 stays at 3.4%.
    • IMF forecasts global inflation at 4.7% this year, easing to 4.1% in 2027.
    • IMF forecasts UK growth of 1.3% this year, but cut its 2027 forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%.
    • IMF forecasts US growth at 2.3% this year and 2.3% in 2027, up from 2.2% last time.
    • US strategic petroleum reserve reportedly fell to its lowest level since 1982.

    Commentary

    The forecasts are the reassuring part; the real signal is how little cushion is left for a new shock. A renewed escalation would hit prices and public finances at the same moment. If another shock arrives before governments rebuild, consumers would absorb the first hit.

    Sources: The Guardian

Today's video

Also posted to: