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  1. 1

    US wholesale prices jump 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022

    US producer prices rose 1.3% in September from August and 6.3% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as reported by CNBC and CNN. CNBC said the monthly and annual gains were the largest since March 2022 and December 2022, respectively, and both topped Dow Jones economist forecasts of 0.6% and 5.5%. Energy drove much of the rise as the Middle East conflict, including the US war with Iran, curtailed oil supply. NBC News reported that the BLS said half of the monthly increase came from gasoline, and that diesel prices were a particular concern for economists. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.7% monthly and 5% annually. The data came a day after a hotter-than-expected consumer price report and weeks before the midterm elections.

    Key facts

    • Producer price index rose 1.3% from August to September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022
    • Producer prices rose 6.3% annually in September, the largest annual gain since December 2022
    • Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast 0.6% monthly and 5.5% annual producer price increases
    • Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.7% monthly and 5% annually
    • Energy accounted for 80% of the 2.9% goods price increase, per CNN's reading of BLS data

    Commentary

    The energy shock is no longer confined to fuel, as diesel and transportation costs feed into food and goods. Traders now price a roughly 34% chance of a Fed hike this month, which means the Fed may tighten into a midterm election season with consumers already squeezed.

    Sources: CNBC, CNN, NBC News, ABC Columbia

  2. 2

    Tech stocks slide and Treasury yields fall as investors seek safety amid AI doubts

    Treasury yields fell Thursday as investors sold technology shares and moved into bonds. The move followed hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation data, with producer prices up 6.3% from a year earlier, the biggest annual gain since 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Growing fears that higher inflation and interest rates could undermine the AI spending boom drove the tech sell-off, which began in Asia. US stocks recovered from an early drop, though NBC News reported the tech-heavy Nasdaq remained more than 3% below its peak.

    Key facts

    • Seoul's Kospi closed down 7.6% after diving more than 8% intraday, triggering a brief trading halt.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 10 basis points to 5.089%, CNBC reported.
    • Anthropic's quarterly revenue growth has slowed, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.
    • Economist Ed Yardeni cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400.
    • Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September, the Labor Department said.

    Commentary

    Equities fell on hot inflation data while Treasuries absorbed the money, suggesting investors see AI returns, not the Fed, as the weaker link. Futures still price another rate rise, so the bond rally may prove a pause, and squeezed households would bear most of any AI-driven slowdown.

    Sources: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, NBC News, Spectrum News

  3. 3

    Fed officials voice concern over hot inflation data before rate decision

    Federal Reserve officials have voiced concern over inflation after a run of hotter-than-expected data, including a consumer price report, a Beige Book survey of businesses complaining about fuel costs, and a producer price report. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said inflation was higher than he would have hoped, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he was concerned, particularly that service inflation exceeded expectations, and was willing to raise rates further if inflation stayed high. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at least two more quarter-point hikes would be needed to reach the 2% target. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, speaking before the consumer price report, said there was no rush to raise rates. The central bank is weighing whether to raise its key rate at its meeting at the end of the month, with the Iran war and tariffs complicating the picture.

    Key facts

    • Wholesale prices rose 1.3% in September from August, the biggest monthly increase since March 2022.
    • Financial markets priced a 27% chance of a quarter-point rate hike this month, per CME FedWatch.
    • Markets priced a 93% chance of at least one rate hike by December, per CME FedWatch.
    • John C. Williams of the New York Fed said one more quarter-point hike may be appropriate this year.

    Commentary

    The unexpected part is not that officials are worried but that they disagree on how far to go, with markets leaning toward a later move over an immediate one. Any further hike would land first on households already squeezed by fuel costs, so the split suggests the outcome will depend on whether energy and tariff pressures ease.

    Sources: Investopedia, Yahoo Finance, NBC News

  4. 4

    Rising prices and the Iran war weigh on Trump ahead of midterm elections

    Rising prices and the Iran war are weighing on President Donald Trump's Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections. Labor Department data showed consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, above expectations, while producer prices climbed 6.3%, Spectrum News reported. Trump has described the economy as doing great and called price increases temporary, while Democratic candidates including Abdul El-Sayed and Roy Cooper tie costs to the war and tariffs. A Harris poll for the Guardian found growing pessimism about the economy, with a majority saying it is getting worse. Some Republican candidates, including Mike Rogers, have called for the war to end.

    Key facts

    • AP-NORC poll found 25% approved of Trump's handling of the economy.
    • Pew Research poll: 84% of registered voters say the economy is very important to their decision.
    • National average regular gasoline price hit $4.33 per gallon Thursday, per AAA, up $1.35 since the Iran war began.
    • Harris poll: 65% of independents say the economy is getting worse, up from 48% in September 2024.
    • Democrats (71%) were more likely than Republicans (59%) to say their own party has a solution to affordability.

    Commentary

    The shift that matters is among Republicans and rural voters, whose optimism has eroded even as Trump insists the economy is strong. His pitch of a $5,000 payment and depression warnings about Democrats sidesteps the grocery and gas bills voters are judging him on, so the midterms may turn on whether his rallies can outweigh those costs.

    Sources: The Guardian, NPR, Spectrum News

  5. 5

    Soaring heating oil prices strain Maine households as winter nears

    Heating oil costs are squeezing households in Maine, the state that depends on the fuel more than any other, as winter approaches. In Freeport, Chris and Cheryl Oliver, who live on roughly $60,000 a year, said they must choose between food and gas, and free heating oil from a local community center will not last the winter. Cheryl Oliver said she was panicking about how to fill their tank and stay warm. CBS News reported that heating oil prices have risen alongside diesel and gasoline since the start of the Iran war. Freeport Wood Bank co-founder Tony DiMarco said demand is extremely high and that donations keep the bank running. This week he delivered two free cords of firewood to the Olivers, a lifeline for a family already struggling after Chris Oliver's health setbacks.

    Key facts

    • Maine heating oil rose from $3.34 to $5.97 a gallon in one year, CBS News reported.
    • Massachusetts average heating oil price climbed from $3.52 to $6.08 a gallon, per state energy department figures.
    • The Olivers qualified for 100 gallons of free heating oil, worth about $700.
    • More than 4 million US households use heating oil as their primary fuel, 82% of them in the Northeast.
    • Freeport Wood Bank can supply about 50 families with firewood but expects to run out by mid-winter.

    Commentary

    The predictable part is the price spike; the reporting adds that aid covers only a fraction of the bill, leaving charities like the wood bank to absorb the gap. Households without cash for costly fuel switches have no quick exit, so winter's burden falls on donations rather than on fuel markets.

    Sources: CBS News, Wellesley, MA (.gov)

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